Friday, 31 July 2015

frankwash: ON PRESIDENT MUHAMMADU BUHARI'S DECISION TO LIMIT ...

frankwash: ON PRESIDENT MUHAMMADU BUHARI'S DECISION TO LIMIT ...: ON PRESIDENT MUHAMMADU BUHARI'S DECISION TO LIMIT PROBE TO FORMER PRESIDENT JONATHAN'S ADMINISTRATION. Corruption has been the ban...

ON PRESIDENT MUHAMMADU BUHARI'S DECISION TO LIMIT PROBE TO FORMER PRESIDENT JONATHAN'S ADMINISTRATION

ON PRESIDENT MUHAMMADU BUHARI'S DECISION TO LIMIT PROBE TO FORMER PRESIDENT JONATHAN'S ADMINISTRATION.

Corruption has been the bane of Nigeria since her independence in 1960. It is largely responsible for her underdevelopment and the plethora of challenges confronting her as a modern state. Many successive governments of Nigeria have not muster the political will to fight this monster that has eaten deep into every facet of our national life and reduced millions of ordinary Nigerians to subhumans, who now live a life of abject poverty devoid of the basic necessities in their country of birth that is naturally endowed with sufficient natural resources with the economic and human potentials to be one of the wealthiest states on the face of the earth.                                                                                       
Many Nigerians, have for years waited for a government that would fight corruption and use resources of the country for its development for the benefit of every Nigerian. The current APC-led federal government of Nigeria was elected into power on the mantra of its pledge to fight corruption, amongst  other things. The government of President Muhammadu Buhari has said it repeatedly that it would fight corruption and recover all stolen money by past leaders and political office holders in Nigeria. However, the Presidency, has in a statement, through its Senior Special Assistant on Media, Femi Adesina, said it would limit   corruption probe to the administration of former president Goodluck Jonathan.

As expected, this decision by Buhari's government to probe only the past government of Dr Goodluck Jonathan is generating altercations, debates and heated arguments among Nigerians and shows how heavilly polarized and  divided the country is on burning national issues. It suffices to take a cursory look at some of the opposing arguments and views with regard to this issue.

Some Nigerians are of the view that there is nothing wrong with the decision by President Buhari to limit probe only to the government of former President Goodluck Jonathan. Persons in this school of thought are of the view that current government of Nigeria headed by Muhammadu Buhari has ample evidence at its disposal to probe Jonathan's government. They argue that the handover notes presented by Dr Jonathan to President Buhari should serve as a platform for the probe. According to them, President Buhari's government should study the handover notes very thoroughly and determine if it is a clear reflection of the actual state of things in the country with a view to revealing where acts of corruption and financial malpractices took place in the last administration of Dr Jonathan. More so, persons in this group believe that the alleged money stolen by officials of Jonathan's government is stashed in local and international bank accounts and within the reach of the federal government of Nigeria.  The crust of the argument of those in favour of probe of only Jonathan's administration is that former President Jonathan's government was stinkingly corrupt and should not be allowed to evade probe and justice at it would encourage and embolden future governments to engage in acts of massive corruption. By implication, a probe of Jonathan's government would serve as a deterrent to future governments to desist from engaging in corruption.

On the contrary, some Nigerians are of the view that President Buhari should not limit probe to only Dr Jonathan's former government. To them, Buhari should not engage in 'selective anti-corruption fight' as it would amount to witch-hunting. They further argue that corruption has been a part of Nigeria's life since independence in 1960, and any attempt to limit corruption probe to only Jonathan's government and leave other past governments would defeat the essence of the exercise. To those in this group, virtually all past governments in Nigeria partook in corruption and should be probed by Buhari.

For me, the two schools of thought  regarding probe of corruption by Jonathan's government may have their strength and weaknesses. However, it is my candid opinion that the fight against corruption by President Muhammadu Buhari should be a total one. He should probe all past governments of Nigeria and not limit probe to only Dr Jonathan's government, as it would be interpreted to be witch-hunting, and capable of threatening national unity and security. His anti-corruption fight should not be selective. The president has told the world that up to $150 billion Nigeria's stolen money is stashed in foreign bank accounts. That the president has not said that this humongous amount of money was stolen only by officials of Jonathan's government should mean that other past governments heavily participated in looting Nigeria dry and stashing the loot in foreign bank accounts. More so, President Buhari has said he is working with the United States government and other western powers to help Nigeria in repatriating this money back home. This is a welcome development and we hope the West would help us as President Obama of the United States had assured President Buhari in his state visit to the former's country.

Corruption is corruption anywhere in the world. A spade should be called a spade, not shovel. In Nigeria, it is like canker-worm that has eaten deep into every fabric of our national life.  It is responsible for the myriads of woes confronting Nigeria as a country and a key reason for her underdevelopment. The looting of our treasury by our political leaders since independence is the principal reason millions of ordinary Nigerians are impoverished and live in appalling /inhuman condition and abject poverty.  Nigeria is a country that berths on huge natural resources. There is no reason for Nigerians to be poor, whatsoever.                                                                                                                           
 President Muhammadu Buhari said it times without number in the course of his election campaign that it is ''either we kill corruption as a country or corruption will kill us''. Now is the time to kill corruption so that it will not kill us.  We will not and must not allow corruption to kill us a nation. The fight must be a total, not selective one. There was never anytime the president said it during his campaigns that he would limit probe to Jonathan's government. It should not be the case now. Many Nigerians and the world will not take his anti-corruption probe serious if he limits it to only Jonathan's government and spares other past governments that indulged in monumental acts of corruption.

There are several instances of corruption and looting of Nigeria's treasury by past military regimes. It has been said that corruption became institutionalized in Nigeria during military rule. For instance, during the oil boom of the 1970s, when the price of oil was very high and Nigeria made so much money from oil export, the then military head of state, General Gowon, was reported to have said that ''Nigeria's problem was not money but how to spend the money'' By interpretation, this meant that Nigeria  earned so much money from the oil boom of the 1970s but was squandered by the power that be then. It is on records that one of the sins of General Gowon's government that led to his overthrow by late General Murtala Mohammed , was corruption.

Nigeria was said to have made several billions of US dollars in the early 1990s during the First Gulf War between the United States of America and Sadam Hussein of Iraq. This was known as the Oil Windfall of the  early 1990s and the billions of dollars Nigeria made from oil sales during this period have not been accounted for till date. This should be probed by President Buhari.

Many cases of corruption have also been recorded since the country's  return to democracy in 1999. Prominent among  them are the Halliburton corruption scandal, the Siemens's scandal, spending of over $16 billion US dollars on electricity without generating additional 500 megawatts of  power, dubious privatisation of the power sector and many others too numerous to mention here. All these should be probed by current Nigerian government.

I wish to conclude that many Nigerians are in support of President Muhammadu Buhari anti-corruption fight. The president should make it an inclusive fight, not selective. He should probe every corrupt past government, not only Jonathan's government. This is the only way he can convince many Nigerians that he is serious with his fight against corruption. He is said to be a man of integrity. He should prove it to the world that he is truly a man of integrity by probing every past corrupt government of Nigeria.  Ample evidence exists of acts of corruption by various governments in Nigeria since independence. It would be very good if President Buhari could confiscate the wealth of those who have looted our national treasury and use the money to fix the plethora of challenges facing Nigeria, thereby making the country a better place for every Nigerian to live life to the fullest and achieve their goals and aspirations as citizens. There should be no sacred cows as far as the fight against corruption is concerned. President Buhari should not allow Nigerians to believe that he is afraid of probing past military generals and heads of states like Babangida, Obasanjo, Abdulsalami and others. It is still trending in both conventional and social media General Ibrahim Babangida has threatened to reveal Buhari's records and expose his acts of corruption as Minister of Petroleum in the 1970s and as Chairman of defunct Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF), in the 1990s if he attempts to probe him. It is been alleged in some quarters that this is the reason President Buhari had hurriedly said in a press statement through his Senior Assistant on Media, Femi Adesina, that his government would limit probe to Jonathan's administration. Time shall tell if this is true.






Tuesday, 28 July 2015

Monday, 27 July 2015

WELCOME TO MY BLOG

Welcome to my blog: frankwash100.blogspot.com . After a very careful and thorough thought, I have decided to blog on politics and health matters. I understand there are plethora of other areas to blog on. Realizing that it not easy to blog on every area of human endeavor, I have settled for political issues and health matters. While I specialize on these two areas, I, from time to time, blog on other areas, such as entertainments and sports.

As a trained historian and diplomat, I posses the intellectual capacity to appreciate, analyze  and understand local and international politics, among other things. More so, politics is a  very interesting phenomenon that effects the life and welfare of every citizen of a state, hence, the need to blog on it. Among other things, my aim is to draw attention of citizens to political happenings , events and policies of governments in their countries and the world in general especially as they affect their lives. With my writing on politics, I also aim to create political awareness among people, thereby eliciting responses and reactions from them on the way forward regarding various political issues that affect them.


Health is very important issue that affects every human. There is a saying that health is wealth. I wish to add also that health is life. A healthy person is a living person. A sick person is only existing as he or she cannot live life to the fullest. The need to be healthy, fit, live longer and achieve ones goals and aspirations in life cannot be overemphasized. This is why I blog on health. As an HMO Officer in a hospital and health researcher, my major aim is to create health awareness among people to be able to reduce to the barest minimum, the rate at which they fall ill. More so, my blog aims to let people know what to do in order to be fine as quickly as possible should they fall ill. Many persons in Africa, parts of Asia and Latin America, die from preventable and curable diseases due to ignorance and superstitions. My blog aims to demystify ignorance and superstitions as far as health matters are concerned. Many ailments and diseases are medical in nature and the sufferers can be treated and cured medically. In a nutshell, by blogging on health, I hope to nullify superstitions and prove that so many diseases and ailments can avoided or handled medically.  Do check on my blog for preventive medicine and what to do when you fall ill.

Thanks, for following my blog.  I do hope your aim of following me on Google shall met. Cheers.

Friday, 24 July 2015

frankwash: IMPLICATIONS OF IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL ON GLOBAL PRICES...

frankwash: IMPLICATIONS OF IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL ON GLOBAL PRICES...: IMPLICATIONS OF IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL ON GLOBAL PRICES OF CRUDE OIL: EMPHASIS ON NIGERIA. This article attempts a look at the possible econom...

IMPLICATIONS OF IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL ON GLOBAL PRICES OF CRUDE OIL: EMPHASIS ON NIGERIA


IMPLICATIONS OF IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL ON GLOBAL PRICES OF CRUDE OIL: EMPHASIS ON NIGERIA.

This article attempts a look at the possible economic implications of Iran Nuclear Deal on the global prices of crude. Precisely, the article attempts to forecast the implications of the deal on the global prices of crude oil, with particular emphasis on Nigeria for two reasons. First, Nigeria is one of those few states in the world  that rely heavily on foreign revenues earned from exports of crude oil to service or finance her national life. Second, the writer of this article is a Nigerian, interested in the progress and development of his country, and therefore, hopes to draw Nigeria's attention to the possible negative effects or implications of the nuclear deal on the prices of crude oil, while also suggesting the way out of the possible economic stress, strain and suffocation that may arise from the the nuclear deal because of its ability to further bring down the prices of crude oil in the international market, which have been at a very low ebb in the past months.

The Islamic Republic of Iran reached a nuclear deal with six world superpowers, led by the United States, after months of difficult negotiations characterized  by diplomatic intrigues and maneuverings. Under the Iran  Nuclear Deal reached on 14 July, 2015, Iran is expected give up its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. It is not the intention of this article to delve into details of the deal regarding its terms and  conditions. However, the article takes a cursory look at the implications of the deal on the prices of crude oil in the international market. This is important for a proper and adequate understanding of the implication of the deal on Nigeria.

A very important aspect of the nuclear deal between Iran and major world  powers is that it is capable of opening Iran's crude oil reserves to the rest of the world. However, this is only possible when the US and the EU relax sanctions on Iran. This would no doubt, lead to increased production and exports by Iran and could further bring down the already low oil prices.


The lifting of sanctions on Iran by the US and other major world powers may not come almost immediately after the deal. This could come in 2016 depending on Iran's co-operation. Once sanctions are lifted, Iran could finally start selling some of the roughly 30 to 37 million barrels of crude oil it currently has stored in large floating tankers off its coast.There would mean more supply of crude into the oil market and is capable of pushing down, modestly, on oil prices.

 According to Sara Vakshouri (relying on Mees Extimates),between 2012 to 2015, oil production in Iran fell from about  3.6 to 2.6 million barrels per day as a result of crippling economic sanctions slammed on her by the West. Back in 2008, Iran produced some 4 million barrels of oil per day. By May 2015, that had fallen to just 2.8 million barrels per day. To put it in perspective, the entire world consumes about 90 million barrels per day; so, this is a significant amount.

Furthermore, according to VOX, Iran currently has 30 million barrels of crude oil stored at sea. On top of that, Iran has been facing difficulties selling the oil that it can still pump out particularly after the European Union imposed sanctions in 2012 that barred insurers from covering ships that carry Iranian oil.  As a direct consequence of the crippling sanctions, Iran's oil export plummeted from 2.6 million barrels per day in 2011 to down to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2014-with sales going mainly to China, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey.


As had been indicated above, sanctions on Iran can only be lifted if she complies fully with the terms of the nuclear deal and gives up her nuclear enrichment programme. Not until this is done, the deal may remain a mere paper work without any practical effect. However, it is hoped that Iran would cooperate with the six major world powers it reached the deal with for sanctions to be lifted. There are fears in some quarters that Iran may default regarding her obligation to fulfilling her own part of the deal. To lend credence to this fears, just recently, precisely, Saturday 18th May, 2015, the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,  attacked the US (chanting death to America), Israel and their allies and won that ''Iran would not change her policies toward the US''. 

On the part of the US, President Barack Obama, had won that he would  veto the US Congress should it refused to give accent to the nuclear deal. The parliaments of the other major powers- Russia, China, France, United Kingdom and Germany also have to approve the deal for it to become active and effective.

Now, lets go to the business of this article. All things been equal, if Iran fulfill her own part of the deal by discontinuing her nuclear program, there is no doubt that the the US and the EU, would ease economic sanctions on her. The direct, but not necessarily immediate consequence of that, would be the opening of Iran's oil industry to the rest of the world. This would mean increased production and export of crude oil to the international oil market. The price of crude oil has been very low in the past one year after an all-time high prices enjoyed by oil producing countries for almost one decade. However, if sanctions on Iran are lifted, her resumption of oil export to the world is capable of further pushing down the already low price of the product. This is in view of the consideration that more supply of oil into the already saturated world oil market could further crash prices of the commodity.

Furthermore, if the recent forecast for 2015 global crude prices raised by the World Bank is anything to go by, the prices of crude oil may remain low for the rest of 2015. The forecast is contained in the bank's latest Commodity Market Outlook released on Wednesday 22nd May, 2015. According to it: ''Large inventories and rising output from OPEC members suggest prices will likely remain weak in the medium term'', said John Baffes, senoir economist and lead author of the report . The bank said Iran's nuclear deal with the US and other leading governments, if ratified, would ease sanctions, including restrictions on oil exports from Iran.


Nigeria is an oil producing country and a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC). As a country, Nigeria's economy depends largely on revenues that accrue from export of crude oil to other countries. It is no longer news that price of crude oil has fallen drastically in the last one year or there about. The immediate and direct consequence of this on Nigeria is that her revenue base has dropped  astronomically in the past months. This has created serious economic stress and strain for her as a sate. It has even reached an extent now that Nigeria as a state does not have the money to attend to state affairs and even pay salaries. It is not breaking news to say here that the federal government of Nigeria under the leadership of former President Jonathan borrowed over four hundred billion Nigerian Naira to pay salaries of federal workers. More so, many states and local governments in Nigeria cannot pay salaries of persons working for them and  are therefore owing outstanding salaries. Not long ago, the federal government of Nigeria approved financial bail-out of over 400 billion Naira for states that have not paid their workers in the past months.


Nigeria's financial woe is compounded by the fact that some of the leading economies of the world, such as the US, China and India are no longer buying her oil. The reality now is that she has to look for new buyers for her oil and this may not be an easy task as one might think in view of the fact that many countries are now discovering oil in commercial quantity. For instance, the United States of America has discovered and is developing more oil wells and fields in the states of North Dakota, Texas and others. This means that she may not resume the exports of crude oil from Nigeria as one might think. This has serious negative economic implications for Nigerian oil market and by extension, her economy and could only get worsened when the US eventually attains energy independence and stops buying oil from any OPEC state.

 Here are my submissions as I end this article. The Iran Nuclear agreement is a historic deal in the quest by the world to control proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction in the international political system,  depending on how one looks at it. The deal would only become practicable when Iran and major world powers  fulfill their parts of it. This would lead to easing of economic sanctions on Iran by the US and other major powers that are signatories to it. A direct implication of lifting of sanctions would be the bouncing back of Iran's oil industry. This would mean the resumption of oil export by Iran to the rest of the world and could further crash global oil prices. Countries with economies that are largely dependent of oil export would bear the economic brunt of this. Nigeria, a country that depends heavily on revenue from oil export cannot escape this and would definitely face more financial difficulties. To avoid this, now is the time for the Nigerian government to diversify the economy of the country and begin to shift attention from oil as its major foreign exchange earner in view of the dwindling fortune of the product. There is also the need to fix power, energy sector, infrastructure, reduce cost of governance and curb corruption in the system. This is the only way to avoid the impending economic calamity that may befall the country as result possible oil glut that may accompany the Iran Nuclear deal and the politics of the US and her allies that have kept oil prices at very low level in the past one year.












Tuesday, 21 July 2015

Tuesday, 14 July 2015

FROM A REGIONAL TO A NATIONAL PLAYER: HOW FAR CAN CHIEF TINUBU GO?

An ardent follower or observer of Nigerian politics would no doubt, agree that Chief Ahmed Bola Tinubu is is a force to reckon with as far as Nigerians politics is concerned. He was the governor of Lagos State for eight years, from 1999 to 2007 under the umbrella of the defunct political party, Alliance for Democracy (AD), which later metamorphosed into the Action Congress, later known as the Action Congress of Nigeria, the ACN.

As the governor of Lagos State from 1999 to 2007, Chief Tinubu, also known as Senator Tinubu was said to have laid a very solid foundation for the economic and political development of the state. He was succeeded by Mr Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN), who as governor of Lagos State from May 2007 to May 2015, built on the foundation laid by his predecessor and benefactor, Senator Tinubu, to bring about the physical and socio-economic development  visible in Lagos State today to everybody. This is however, not an attempt to say that the Federal Government of Nigeria did not contribute to the development of Lagos when it was the federal capital of Nigeria from 1960 to 1991. In the light of this therefore, it is imperative to take into consideration the developmental efforts and strides
made by the Federal Government of Nigeria whenever the issue of development of Lagos comes to the front burner.

There is no doubt that Senator Tinubu became very powerful as the governor of Lagos and even became more powerful after he had left office in 2007. It is important to note that he was the leader of the Alliance for Democracy and later the Action Congress of Nigeria, the two political parties that held sway in the South West region of Nigeria then. Chief Tinubu  is today referred to as the Emeritus Governor of Lagos State by his followers and supporters. This  goes a long way to show how powerful and influential he is in the politics of the South West region of Nigeria, the home of the Yoruba ethnic group.                                                                                                                              

As the political leader of the South West region or as a regional political player in the South West, it is not disputable that Senator Tinubu is the most powerful politician in that geopolitical area of Nigeria. It will not be possible to show how powerful and influential he had become in the politics of Yoruba land but it will suffice to present of few instances of his political exploits in the area.

Chief or Senator Tinubu as he is known was the only politician who was able to stop the former president of Nigeria, General Olusegun Obasanjo (rtd) from taking over Lagos State in 2007. In the 2007 general election that was conducted by Chief Obasanjo and, the then ruling political party, the Peoples Democratic Party took over government in the other South West states of Osun, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti and Ondo, except Lagos and this was made possible by Chief Tinubu. Lagos State under him survived when Obasanjo with held allocations meant for the state for political differences. It is also on record that Chief Tinubu created local council development areas as governor of Lagos State, against the provisions of the Nigerian constitution .He (Tinubu) was also was very instrumental financially, materially and morally in the legal battles instituted by the governorship candidates   ACN  against the PDP in the election tribunals in the affected states of the federation, and the ultimate outcome was the restoration of governorship mandates to governors Rauf Aregbesola of Osun State, Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State and Comrade Adams Oshiomhole of Edo State.      

To further demonstrate how far reaching the political influence of Chief Tinubu had become in the politics of the South West, he is directly  involved in the selection and appointments of governors, commissioner, special advisers and other political office holders in Lagos State and the entire South West geopolitical zone. A few instances would shed more light on this. He single-handedly chose his successor, in the person of former governor Babatunde Fashola and presented Mr Akinwumi Ambode, the current governor of Lagos state. His wife, Mr Oluremi Tinubu, is a two-term serving Senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria; his daughter is the Iya Oloja or Head of Market Women and Traders in the entire Lagos State. More so, many of the local government chairmen and councilors, state governors, state and federal law makers from the South West region of Nigeria occupied positions by virtue of their connection to and loyalty to Cheif Tinubu. Put succinctly, Chief Tinubu is the political godfather of the South West region of Nigeria and has done this very successfully   since 1999 till date.

The formation of the All Progressives Congress, the APC, which is Nigeria's current ruling political party at the federal level and in more than twenty states of the federation, was largely credited to Chief Tinubu's effort. The APC is an amalgam of five or more different political parties or groups. They include the former Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), a faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and a faction of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). The APC came into being as an alliance aimed at wresting political power from the PDP, which was Nigeria's ruling political party at the federal level of government and in over twenty states of the federation from May 29, 1999 to May 29, 2015.

With the coming of the All Progressives Congress into the national political terrain of Nigeria, Senator Tinubu moved from being a regional player in Nigerian politics into a national player. This is clearly indicated that he is now in the ruling party as against being in the opposition for sixteen years when he was a member of the opposition Alliance for Democracy and Action Congress of Nigeria. Chief Tinubu was not only the mastermind of the APC  but he is said to have pumped in huge financial and material resources in the party.  He was also very instrumental in breaking the ranks of PDP and in the negotiations that gave birth to the APC which subsequently saw his emergence as the National Leader of the political party. More so, he is said to have supported the emergence of General Buhari as the presidential candidate of the APC, taking into consideration that he (Buhari), would be a tough match for the then president, Dr Goodluck Jonathan in the 2015 presidential election. The Vice President, in the person of Professor Osinbajo was also presented by Tinubu.

Now that Chief Senator Tinubu had moved from being a regional player in the South West to national player in Nigerian politics, the question is: How far can he go?

It is not news that the All Progressives Congress is being rocked by a leadership crisis over who becomes what and who gets what as far as national positions at the federal level and sharing of national cake is concerned. The crisis plaguing the leadership echelon of the new ruling political party in Nigeria has so far almost brought the affairs of government at the federal level to a halt and stopped the federal government from hitting the ground running as far as governance is concerned, for over two months after taking over power on 29 May, 2015. The various interest groups that formed the APC have not agreed on how to share the political gains of their election victory.  

The APC is made up of several political blocks or camps, with each owing political allegiance or loyalty to its former political party rather than to APC as a party. It is a party that is full of opposition groups within itself. This crisis has pitched leaders of the various camps in the party against one another. For now, regarding the sharing of political positions so far, the former CPC has produced the president of Nigeria in the person of President Buhari: the Vice President is from the former ACN, Senate President Saraki Olusola is from a faction of PDP that joined in forming the APC and same is the case for the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dogara.

The crisis in the APC became public knowledge when the national leadership of the party revealed in a meeting of the party leaders that it had chosen some persons from the party who had been endorsed as the 'sole candidates' of the party in the legislative election that would  result in election of key or principal leaders of the national assembly of Nigeria, that is, the Senate and House of Representatives. This unilateral decision by the 'so-called' national leadership of the APC to impose principal leaders of the national assembly was resisted by Senator Bukola Saraki, who together with his friends, known as APC Senator Elect of Like Minds, worked out of the meeting of APC national leadership in protest that the party leader lacks the power to impose leaders over the national assembly.This was the immediate (not remote), or at least open cause of the crisis that has so far rocked APC for weeks and almost tore it apart.

As has been demonstrated earlier in this piece, Chief Tinubu was and is still the political godfather of the South West or Yoruba land. A cursory look at some of his political exploits in the region has been carried out. It is true that he has dictated and controlled the politics of the South West with little or no opposition from the region largely due to his political investment in the politics of the region. The Saraki and Dogara camps in the APC alleged that the attempt to hijack the leadership of the national assembly was orchestrated by Chief Tinubu and have accused him of trying to 'pocket' Nigeria's legislative arm of government. I do not wish to comment on this as it is all part of the intrigues and intricacies considered to be normal in Nigerian politic.

With the movement of Chief Tinubu from being a regional political player to a national player, one is tempted to assume that he had it in mind that he was going to be the new godfather at the federal level of government. Many may not subscribe to this view but one is tempted to postulate this hypothesis in view of the consideration that the overriding interest of any individual in politics is the fulfillment of his personal interests and ambitions.  Chief Tinubu, just like any other persons that have invested politically in the emergence of the President and other political office holders in this APC government did not do so because of benevolence or their love for such political figures in positions of authority today. They did it because of their own political interest and saw such such investment as a means to their own political ends.                                                                                 


It will not be illogical or out of place to contend that Chief Tinubu had calculated that as the national leader of the APC he would be the godfather of the president and other political office holders in this government. This could well be appreciated more when one takes into consideration the fact that he supported Buhari through the election campaigns and was even the one behind the campaigns. It is not possible to talk about his financial investment in Buhari but one may reasonably assume that he would have put in huge financial resources in Buhari's political venture and the APC as a political party and that now should be the time for him to reap the 'benefits or gains' of his political investment.

The first political or leadership litmus test faced by Chief Tinubu as a 'godfather' supposedly was his alleged attempt to impose Lawan as Senate President and Honorable Gbajabiamila as Speaker of Nigeria's House of Representatives. This was vehemently opposed by Saraki and other of  his loyal senators in the APC as well as other lawmakers in the House of Representatives. With the support of the PDP, Senator Saraki became the Senate President while Honorable Dogara emerged Speaker of House of Representatives against the wishes of Tinubu and some other leaders in the APC. The emergence of Saraki and Dogara as leaders of the Nigerian National Assembly was a big defeat to Chief Tinubu and his supporters who had wanted and still want their preferred candidates to head the leadership of Nigerian legislative arm of government.

The crisis rocking the APC continues to rage and is taking a very dangerous dimension as we speak. It has prevented President Buhari from forming an executive cabinet to assist him in running the affairs of government and has also slowed down governance. Many persons in the other camps continue to point accusing fingers on Tinubu for being behind the crisis in the party. I however, find it difficult to accept this as it would tantamount to a mono-causal pattern or mode of analysis. For me, the inability of the various camps and groups in APC to dump their selfish interests for national interest is responsible for the crisis. However, there is no doubt, that Chief Tinubu, having invested heavily in the APC would have preferred a situation where he would play a lead role in the party and by extension, Nigerian politics especially as it has to do with who gets what and who takes what. Put succinctly, Chief Tinubu would have preferred a situation where his loyalists occupy key legislative and executive positions in this current federal government and dictate to them what to do and what not thereby using the APC as his political empire to actualize his political goals and ambitions. Unfortunately, however,  Nigerian politics is full of political bigwigs and actors who hardly agree or reach consensus on national issues due to their own selfish national interests.                                      

Can Chief Tinubu play his role of godfatherism in Nigerian politics like he did and still does in the politics of the South West? How far can he go as national player as against being a regional player? Can he achieve or actualize his expectations for committing so much in the APC? These questions and many more become imperative in view of the fact that he had committed so much into the APC and also bearing in mind that Nigeria politics is not South West politics. It is full of political titans who have been in the game even before Chief Tinubu ventured into politics. Only time shall tell how far he can go as a national player or actor in Nigerian politics.